The system produced an average return on investment of 2.28 percent on a sample size of 900,000 bets. It\u2019s a success rate the UEA mathematicians described as \u201cstriking,\u201d particularly in comparison with an average loss of 5.41 percent on all bets on Betfair across the same matches.<\/p>\n
\u201cMuch of the predictive power of social media presents itself just after significant market events, such as goals and red cards, where the tone of tweets can help in the interpretation of information,\u201d said lead researcher Dr Alasdair Brown.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\u201cIn short, social media activity does not just represent sentiment or misinformation. If sensibly aggregated it can, when combined with a prediction market, help to improve forecast accuracy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Powerful Forecaster<\/strong><\/h2>\nThe findings support the idea that social media can be used in other kinds of forecasting, not just of sports results but also future stock returns, for example. Hollywood studios already use the Twitter tone to forecast the likely demand for new movies.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt first glance this may be surprising, as we might think that an individual in possession of valuable information would bet or trade first, and post later,\u201d said Dr Brown. \u201cHowever, if we think that valuable information is dispersed among a number of individuals, then we might understand why social media content leads market prices, as it does in this study and elsewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n
Co-author Dr James Reade, sports economist at the University of Reading, said that, in analysing the \u201cwisdom of crowds,\u201d it was important to listen to the \u201cright parts of the crowd,\u201d in order to gain more information and make better predictions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Twitter is a better predictor of sports results than bookmakers\u2019 odds, thanks to the \u201cwisdom of crowds\u201d effect, scientists said this week. A new study, published in the Economic Enquiry, has found that collective public sentiment on Twitter during a game is able to predict the eventual outcome with astonishing accuracy. Researchers at the University […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":60826,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,19,16,1074],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Twitter Could Be The Key to Successful In-Play Sports Betting, Says Study<\/title>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n