{"id":41362,"date":"2016-10-27T18:28:22","date_gmt":"2016-10-28T01:28:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/?p=41362"},"modified":"2016-10-27T20:16:43","modified_gmt":"2016-10-28T03:16:43","slug":"donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump Odds Improve, as Bookies Monitor Election"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bookmakers have shortened their odds on Donald Trump<\/a> becoming the next American president. Just two weeks ago, it seemed as though the wheels had completely come off the Trump train, and a victory for the real-estate mogul seemed impossible.<\/p>\n

\"Bookies
Donald Trump\u2019s odds of winning the presidential race are looking slightly more promising than they were just two weeks ago, but Nate Silver believes his recent gains are insignificant. (Image: Chuck Burton\/AP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Always quick to spot a good publicity angle, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power<\/a> was even paying out on Hillary Clinton early. The bookie paid out more than $1 million in bets on a Clinton victory, declaring that Trump\u2019s chances of winning were as \u201cpatchy as his tan.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

But now the bookies think he has a shot again: a 22.2 percent shot, to be precise, as William Hill has cut odds on Trump to 7\/2 (-350). It’s been a tough couple of weeks for Mrs. Clinton, whose campaign has been negatively impacted by revelations from WikiLeaks, muckraking from Project Veritas, and Obamacare price hikes. Those scandals have seen her odds adjusted from 1\/9 to 1\/5. That\u2019s from a 90 percent favorite to an 82 percent favorite.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

“Despite being written off by much of the media and by many pollsters, there is still considerable betting support for Donald Trump,” William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe.<\/p>\n

Professor Picks Trump<\/h2>\n

One statistician, in particular, believes that Trump is a good bet. Professor Helmut Norpoth, of New York\u2019s SUNY Stony Brook University, has developed a model that has, retroactively, correctly predicted every single US presidential election since 1912, apart from 2000, when it foresaw an Al Gore victory.<\/p>\n

Of course, many Gore die-hards believe he did win that election, which, incidentally, was the closest in history.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think he was\u00a0the strongest candidate in the primaries\u00a0and that he will prevail,\u201d Norpoth told the New York Post<\/em>. \u201cThe model predicted a Trump win in February and nothing has changed since then. Whatever happens in the real world doesn\u2019t affect the model.\u201d<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Silver for Clinton<\/h2>\n

But Nate Silver, who knows a thing or two about predicting elections, has Clinton all the way. The baseball statistician turned political forecaster successfully called 49 out of 50 US states in the 2008 presidential election. Writing in FiveThirtyEight this week, he acknowledged that Trump may have clawed back some votes, but not enough to make a difference.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur model thinks Donald Trump has\u00a0probably\u00a0narrowed his deficit against Clinton slightly, but the difference is modest enough that we\u2019ve wanted to change our answer with\u00a0every new round of polls,\u201d wrote Silver. \u201cAnd in general, we\u2019re reluctant to proclaim any turnaround in the race while we still have to squint to see a shift.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bookmakers have shortened their odds on Donald Trump becoming the next American president. Just two weeks ago, it seemed as though the wheels had completely come off the Trump train, and a victory for the real-estate mogul seemed impossible. Always quick to spot a good publicity angle, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power was even paying out […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":41367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDonald Trump Odds Improve, as Bookies Monitor Election<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Donald Trump's chances have improved in the presidential election, according to the bookies, but what do the statisticians think?\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Donald Trump Odds Improve, as Bookies Monitor Election\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump's chances have improved in the presidential election, according to the bookies, but what do the statisticians think?\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-10-28T01:28:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-10-28T03:16:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Bookies-cut-odds-on-Donald-Trump.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1160\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"629\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Casino.org Staff Writer\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Casino.org Staff Writer\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/\",\"name\":\"Donald Trump Odds Improve, as Bookies Monitor Election\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Bookies-cut-odds-on-Donald-Trump.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-28T01:28:22+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-10-28T03:16:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/8c48bf89dc86da77b4d856c7b3b78d77\"},\"description\":\"Donald Trump's chances have improved in the presidential election, according to the bookies, but what do the statisticians think?\u00a0\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/donald-trump-odds-improve-as-bookies-monitor-election\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Bookies-cut-odds-on-Donald-Trump.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Bookies-cut-odds-on-Donald-Trump.jpg\",\"width\":1160,\"height\":629,\"caption\":\"Donald Trump\u2019s odds of winning the presidential race are looking slightly more promising than they were just two weeks ago, but Nate Silver believes his recent gains are insignificant. 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