{"id":120749,"date":"2019-11-26T12:24:43","date_gmt":"2019-11-26T20:24:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/?p=120749"},"modified":"2019-11-26T12:58:17","modified_gmt":"2019-11-26T20:58:17","slug":"another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/","title":{"rendered":"November Rain: Nomura Instinet Says This Will be Worst Month of 2019 For Macau Operators"},"content":{"rendered":"

Analysts are piling on when it comes to gloomy fourth-quarter forecasts for Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR). Today, Nomura Instinet said it expects November will be the worst month of 2019 for turnover in the Asia gambling hub.<\/p>\n

In October, Macau’s six concessionaires posted combined GGR of $3.28 billion, a 3.2 percent year-over-year decline. According to Nomura estimates, things aren’t shaping up to be much better in this month on the peninsula.<\/p>\n

We estimate GGR for the month should settle around MOP22.5-23bn ($2.79 billion to $2.85 billion),\u201d said Nomura Instinet analyst Harry Curtis in a note out today. \u201cThe midpoint of the estimated range implies a 9% YoY decline in November, or ~580bp of sequential deceleration, given a tougher one-year growth com.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If the low end of Curtis’ estimate comes to pass, this month will be the worst month for Macau GGR since the $2.78 billion posted in June 2018.<\/p>\n

Latest Dismal Forecast<\/h2>\n

Instinet is the latest research firm to make bearish comments about the near-term revenue and profit outlook for Macau. Recently, Bernstein analysts trimmed earnings estimates for the six operators on the peninsula, citing sluggishness among VIPs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That research firm said fourth-quarter Macau GGR could slide seven percent, worse than its prior forecast of a five percent drop, due to a 17 percent plunge in high-end player revenue. For November, Bernstein expects a GGR decline of 10 percent to 13 percent, while Instinet’s outlook for the current month is less bad, calling for a nine percent decrease.<\/p>\n

\n

Like Bernstein, Curtis and his team at Instinet cite slack VIP turnover as the culprit<\/a> behind the expected November malaise in the Special Administrative Region (SAR).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

VIP numbers are \u201ctracking approximately 30 percent to 32 percent lower versus the same period last year,\u201d according to Instinet.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mass Market Strong, But Not A Savior<\/h2>\n

Recent data indicates visits to Macau remain solid, but that higher-tier gamblers simply aren’t spending as much as in years past. Mass and premium mass players are picking up some of the slack as the segments remain robust, but it’s still not enough to offset the void created by suddenly reluctant VIPs.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe estimate that average daily mass revenues were approximately 5 percent to 7 percent higher year-on-year,\u201d according to Nomura.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Those figures are almost inline with the nine percent fourth-quarter uptick in mass market play on Macau that Bernstein is forecasting.<\/p>\n

Among the operators that stand to benefit from increased non-VIP revenue, Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) is one that stands out.<\/p>\n

The operator of five Macau casinos is significantly less levered to retrenchment among high-end gamblers, and more exposed to the mass and premium mass players, which is one of the reasons so many analysts have favored the stock among those with Asia-Pacific exposure.<\/p>\n

Although LVS’ third-quarter Macau turnover off $2.11 billion slightly missed the consensus forecast<\/a> of $2.13 billion, the company highlighted its ability to generate revenue among lower tier players and non-gaming sources.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts are piling on when it comes to gloomy fourth-quarter forecasts for Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR). Today, Nomura Instinet said it expects November will be the worst month of 2019 for turnover in the Asia gambling hub. In October, Macau’s six concessionaires posted combined GGR of $3.28 billion, a 3.2 percent year-over-year decline. According […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":120755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[69069,10],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAnother Firm Joins The Party Calling For Weak Q4 Macau Results<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nomura Instinet becomes the latest brokerage firm to discuss weak fourth-quarter numbers in Macau, noting that this month could be quite bad.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Another Firm Joins The Party Calling For Weak Q4 Macau Results\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nomura Instinet becomes the latest brokerage firm to discuss weak fourth-quarter numbers in Macau, noting that this month could be quite bad.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-26T20:24:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-11-26T20:58:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/macau2-3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Todd Shriber\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@etfgodfather\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Todd Shriber\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/\",\"name\":\"Another Firm Joins The Party Calling For Weak Q4 Macau Results\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/macau2-3.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-26T20:24:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-11-26T20:58:17+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/f4cecf70a5032bc4e60eb73fc86d4a85\"},\"description\":\"Nomura Instinet becomes the latest brokerage firm to discuss weak fourth-quarter numbers in Macau, noting that this month could be quite bad.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/another-firm-joins-the-party-calling-for-weak-q4-macau-results\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/macau2-3.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/macau2-3.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":800,\"caption\":\"Another research firm is chiming on near-term Macau revenue and the data aren't looking good. 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Todd got his start in financial markets as a reporter with Bloomberg News. Later, he became a trader at a Southern California-based long\/short hedge fund, where he specialized in the trading sector and international ETFs leading up to and during the financial crisis. He joined Casino.org in 2019. Currently, Todd analyzes, researches, and writes on ETFs for various web-based publications and financial services firms. Shriber has been featured and quoted in Barron's, CNBC.com, and The Wall Street Journal. His work can also be found on Benzinga, ETF Daily News, ETF Trends, MarketWatch, Fox Business, and Nasdaq.com. He currently resides in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golf and taking his black lab to the dog park. He's also an avid sports fan and likes to wager on college football and the NBA. You can also find him at the three-card poker and roulette table, even though he knows better. 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