Regulated NFL Bets Could Reach $35B This Year, Says AGA

Posted on: September 4, 2024, 12:52h. 

Last updated on: September 4, 2024, 01:40h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

The 2024 NFL season starts Thursday and when it comes to betting, it’s expected to be a record-breaker. The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that bettors will wager $35 billion on NFL games this year with regulated sportsbooks.

The NFL logo on a football field
The NFL logo on a football field. The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates bettors will place $35 billion in NFL wagers with regulated sportsbooks this year. (Image: CBS Sports)

That’s a 30% jump from the trade group’s forecast of $26.7 billion at the start of the 2023 NFL season. Making that increase all the more notable is the point that just three states added mobile sports wagering since the conclusion of last season — Maine, North Carolina, and Vermont. Of that trio, only North Carolina is a large state.

The AGA estimate jibes with other forecasts predicting that 2024 NFL wagering will topple prior records. A record number of states permitting sports wagering helps the cause. Today, 38 states and Washington, DC allow some form of regulated sports betting.

Football is the most wagered-on sport in the US and that’s largely driven by the NFL. Should the AGA’s $35 billion projection prove accurate, it would be nearly 12x the amount that was wagered on the NCAA Men’s Tournament earlier this year, itself one of the most bet-on events in the country.

Beneficiaries of Football Betting Surge

It helps the football betting handle case that more states than ever before allow sports betting, but in terms of beneficiaries of the elevated football wagering scenario, the field is significantly smaller.

The duopoly of DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment’s (NYSE: FLUT) FanDuel could be strengthened by soaring levels of football betting. On the other hand, some analysts believe this football season is make-or-break time for Penn Entertainment’s (NASDAQ: PENN) ESPN Bet. It could also be pivotal for the likes of BetMGM and Fanatics, which are among the operators attempting to make inroads against the two behemoths.

While the number of states allowing sports betting is at an all-time high entering the 2024 football campaign, the amount of sportsbook operators offering their services is not. Owing to recent attrition in the space, either by acquisition or departure, the number of regulated sportsbook operators available to bettors for the 2024 football season is below the levels seen last year.

That confirms that competing against the likes of DraftKings and FanDuel simply doesn’t make economic sense for some operators, particularly those with already low levels of market share.

Catalysts for Elevated NFL Wagering

The NFL has some advantages when it comes to wooing bettors, including standalone games on Sunday, Monday, and Thursday nights. Those contests, particularly the Sunday and Monday night affairs, are usually among the highest-rated television programs for their respective weeks and, in some cases, for the year in which those games are played.

Those games have a knack of luring big bets and when those “whale” wagers grab media attention, smaller bettors often tail, boosting handle on those games.

Sportsbook operators also have new avenues for tempting bettors. While pregame spreads, totals, and moneyline wagers remain the most popular avenues for wagering on the NFL, gaming companies are expanding their football betting menus to include same-game parlays, in-game wagering, and microbetting, all of which are being widely embraced by clients.