Polymarket Activity Soars with Help from US Presidential Election

Posted on: July 23, 2024, 04:53h. 

Last updated on: July 24, 2024, 10:39h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More

Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

Polymarket, the internet-based marketplace that allows users to wager on everything from politics to pop culture to sports to weather, is experiencing soaring interest among users, much of which is supported by the US presidential election.

While 38 states and Washington, DC currently permit some form of sports wagering, and seven allowed betting on the Oscars this year, political betting is prohibited in regulated markets in the US. Polymarket avoids regulatory scrutiny (mostly) because it doesn’t offer bets in the traditional sense. Rather, the cryptocurrency-based platform provides investors/bettors with an avenue to wager on outcomes by purchasing shares based on an event.

Shares on Polymarket are priced from $0 to $1 with a share trading at 50 cents implying even odds of the event occurring or not happening. Perhaps owing to unusual circumstances, including the assassination attempt on former President Trump and President Biden declaring he won’t seek a second term, Polymarket activity is surging.

Now that betting on the November election has approximated $290 million, both daily volume and number of new active traders have hit all-time highs of $20 million and 30,000, respectively,” noted ARK Invest analyst Lorenzo Valente.

Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2018 and experienced a substantial uptick in activity during the 2020 US presidential campaign as well.

Polymarket Adding New Accounts at Rapid Pace

Bettors’ enthusiasm for Polymarket is evident in the site’s prodigious pace of new account openings over the past three months.

May marked the first time more than 10K new Polymarket accounts were opened. The actual number was close to 20K. In June, the number was roughly 35K and as of July 19, the figure was already close to 30K, according to Dune Analytics data.

Contracts on Polymarket are purchased via the Polygon cryptocurrency, which is based on the Ethereum blockchain. The token has ties to some other wagering entities.

Polygon solves pain points associated with blockchains, like high gas fees and slow speeds, without sacrificing security. This multichain system is akin to other ones, such as Polkadot, Cosmos, Avalanche, etc., according to the token’s developers.

Polymarket Could Highlight Potential of Predictive Markets

There’s no denying that sports betting has taken flight in the US, but bettors want access to new markets, including politics. Traditional, regulated gaming companies can’t provide that access, but prediction markets can and that access could be a growth driver for companies such as Polymarket.

Prediction markets could have real staying power, thanks to platforms that not only are tamper-proof and transparent but also provide liquid bets with real-time consensus data, not to mention the “wisdom of crowds” that provide highly accurate odds,” concludes ARK’s Valente. “As distrust of legacy media increases globally, prediction markets could become “information credibility” barometers that gauge public sentiment and surface truth.”

Popular bets on Polymarket include the winner of the presidential race, whether or not Biden will finish his term, the country that will take home the most medals at the Summer Olympics, and what team will win the Super Bowl.