Donald Trump’s 2024 Run Odds Shorten After He Teases ‘Big Announcement’
Posted on: November 8, 2022, 08:57h.
Last updated on: November 8, 2022, 04:35h.
Former President Donald Trump says he’ll make a “big announcement” from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., on Tuesday, November 15.
Today is Election Day in the US. All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 35 US Senate seats will be determined when the votes are counted.
Most political insiders believe Republicans are poised for a major victory that would put the party in control of both chambers of Congress. And with a “red wave” forecast, many Republicans are already looking to 2024 in hopes of retaking the White House, too.
Trump, who never conceded losing the 2020 election to President Joe Biden, has long been suspected of mulling a fourth presidential campaign. He ran official presidential campaigns in 2000, 2016, and 2020, winning only once in 2016.
Trump’s 2024 Odds Shorten
In recent weeks, Trump has been on the 2022 midterms campaign trail, urging voters to oust Democrats. During a rally Monday for Ohio Republican Senate candidate JD Vance, the 45th president seemed to suggest he’ll officially announce his 2024 intentions next week.
I’m going to be making a very big announcement on November 15 at Mar-a-Lago,” Trump said at a “Save America” rally in Ohio on the eve of the midterms.
As a result of Trump’s comment, political bettors on the PredictIt exchange have put more money behind the former president seeking a second and final four-year term.
“Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?” has “yes” shares trading at 78 cents. Before Trump’s tease, those shares were significantly lower at 68 cents.
The odds continue to shorten on the billionaire aspiring to occupy the White House again. His chances lengthened following the FBI’s August raid of Mar-a-Lago in search of alleged classified documents the president took with him upon departing office. Now, the PredictIt market implied a probability of Trump filing to run before the end of the year at just 20%.
Trump had apparently wanted to announce his 2024 run on the eve of Election Day 2022. But Republican leaders convinced him to hold off in fear that such an announcement could energize Democrats and possibly alienate more middle-of-the-road Republicans and independent voters.
“We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow,” Trump said on Monday.
Trump’s political action committee, Save America, is already flush with more than $60 million in cash.
Latest 2024 Odds
Bettors believe Tuesday’s red wave will be more of a tsunami than a ripple.
Political bettors give the GOP a 74% chance of winning the Senate and House. The House is nearly a sure thing at 90%, but the Senate is thought to be more in play, as GOP shares for winning the upper chamber are at 75%.
Key Senate races are contested in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Polling shows that those five battleground states are where the Senate’s power will ultimately be decided.
Bettors think Republicans counting 53 Senate seats in their grasp following Tuesday’s midterms is the likeliest outcome.
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Last Comments ( 3 )
I am hoping he will be in jail by then...
The Republican Party is no longer (if ever) committed to the idea of open, representative government. It’s common to call this GOP behavior “anti-democratic,” but the description can only go so far. It tells us what they’re moving America AWAY from, representative democracy, but not where they want to take it. The term "minority rule" is closer, but euphemistic; it puts the Republican actions in the same category as a Supreme Court ruling, counter majoritarian moves inside a democratic framework rather than something fundamentally opposed to it. It’s worth being very clear about this: The GOP has become an authoritarian party pushing an authoritarian policy agenda.
Former President Donald Trump should not run in 2024. He will not get the votes needed to win from the minorities, women etc. who dislike him. Just like last election. But If he would endorse someone the GOP would draw more votes from those who dislike him and maybe even some Dems.