Bet365<\/a> and 1.25 to win an Overall Majority. <\/strong>On current polling, they should achieve both with ease but we are still very early in the process. Recent elections saw dramatic changes during the final months and the Conservatives can hope for a repeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n10. Bet On How Many Seats Each Party Will Win<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
At a general election, there are also hundreds of interesting side markets, such as each party\u2019s seat total. For example, Betfair offer \u201cHow many seats will the Conservatives lose\u201d. Here the favorite is 201 seats or more at 2.7.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nBy seats, we mean \u2018constituencies\u2019. There are 650 of them, each returning a Member of Parliament (MP), who takes up a seat. In due course, sportsbooks and exchanges will offer odds on which party will win each of those 650 constituencies. Hundreds of markets among thousands in what promises to be an unforgettable year. Truly, a betting bonanza!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
FAQs About Political Betting<\/h2>\n\n\n\nHow do you bet on politics?<\/strong><\/strong> Betting on politics is the same as betting on sports. You can do so via a Sportsbook, taking fixed odds about a particular outcome. For example, \u201cWho will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?\u201d. Alternatively, you can place political bets via a peer-to-peer betting exchange such as Betfair or PredictIt.<\/p> <\/div>
How accurate are political markets?<\/strong><\/strong> Many argue that political betting markets are a more accurate predictor of results than opinion polls. The evidence for this is mixed and complex, because to some extent political betting odds are driven by polls.
The best guides to answering this question are the exchanges, where odds are driven purely by supply and demand, rather than a particular oddsmaker. Their record is very strong. Since the Betfair exchange was formed in 1998, the favorite 100 days out won the most seats in every UK general election and in all but one US presidential election (the exception being Hillary Clinton\u2019s defeat in 2016).<\/p> <\/div>
How big is the political betting market?<\/strong><\/strong> The US Presidential Election is the biggest single betting market in the world, measured by liquidity on Betfair, the world\u2019s largest betting exchange. The 2016 match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton established a new record, and then liquidity rose seven-fold in 2020 when Trump faced Joe Biden.
Around $2BN was traded on Betfair\u2019s main market to be Next President in 2020. Expect that to increase again in November and perhaps even be challenged, with ever more betting firms offering political betting odds.
Political betting was pioneered in the UK and there are no legal restrictions to bet on politics. These elections come only second to the USA in terms of liquidity and the range of political bets is even bigger.<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>\n\n\n\n
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