{"id":31179,"date":"2022-04-19T18:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-19T23:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=31179"},"modified":"2024-04-16T07:33:05","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T12:33:05","slug":"lottery-waste-of-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/lottery-waste-of-time\/","title":{"rendered":"R. Paul Wilson On: Why The Lottery Is A Waste Of Your Time"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

One of my favourite performance pieces is an absolute miracle with a borrowed deck of cards, created by the Spanish maestro Juan Tamariz<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This particular masterpiece has been shared with\nonly a few friends and students but creates a staggering moment of wonder if\nthe audience can only understand just how completely and utterly impossible the\nfinal effect actually is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Juan\u2019s solution to this is both beautiful and\nelegant, and if you saw him (or I) perform it, you would soon have a real\nunderstanding of how quickly numbers can increase and odds can become\nastronomical so that when the final effect is revealed, the enormous\nimprobability is interpreted as something wonderful, amazing and utterly\nimpossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without giving anything away, the secret is in\nillustrating how quickly large numbers become truly enormous and lose their\nmeaning once we are unable to compare or contrast these numbers based on our\nown experience. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tamariz gives the audience this understanding by\ntapping into their emotional intelligence and the result is pure astonishment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In many aspects of life, especially gambling, investing\nor taking \u201ccalculated\u201d risks, there\u2019s a point where numbers cease to have\nmeaning and intuition takes over but is often way, way off target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seriously Terrible Odds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"person<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We can see this effect in any weekly lottery where people who buy tickets fail to understand the sheer size of the odds against them; seemingly happy with the idea that \u201csomeone always wins\u201d and frankly, I think there\u2019s nothing wrong with that if it\u2019s merely a weekly or occasional purchase to feed one\u2019s dreams or imagine \u201cwhat if\u201d so long as the price of the ticket is affordable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some people, however, take this way too far and\nbuy dozens of tickets every week chasing a great mathematical dragon that will\nonly consume them over time with odds that are far from fair compared to other,\nmuch wiser bets that are available to knowledgeable gamblers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason is not just one of addiction, it is a failure to comprehend the sheer weight of improbability against the player when buying a lottery ticket, not to mention the outrageously unfair reward for beating those lottery odds<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s consider it for a moment and look at our\nchances of winning the UK national lottery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you buy one ticket, the chances of hitting all six numbers are over 45,000,000 to 1 and your chances of hitting just two numbers are around 10 to 1 against you. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chances are, anyone can understand 10:1 against\nin terms of probability but in most people\u2019s minds, 45,000,000 to 1 is\nimmediately translated into \u201cbig number versus small number\u201d and falls squarely\ninto the \u201cguesstimate\u201d part of our brains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is what people do when the numbers start to\nlose their meaning and it\u2019s all too easy to misunderstand or poorly estimate\nthe real odds of something when numbers get so big that our internal system of\nweights and measures simply bundles them into a \u201cbig\u201d or \u201creally big\u201d category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, many con games<\/a> work by concealing astronomical odds or reframing them easily by dictating how those odds are interpreted by a potential mark. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is incredibly easy to do if the target has\na limited comprehension of how numbers relate to any outcome but when dealing\nwith people who do understand the odds and can recognise a skewed (or\nfraudulent) proposition, con artists tend to either make for the door or take\nan entirely different approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But generally speaking, most people fail to\nunderstand the odds against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the bigger those odds, the less they seem to\nunderstand and the easier it might be to focus them on an impossible reward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inability To Comprehend Big Numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Person<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In The Real Hustle<\/a><\/em>, we once showed people a non-existent stocks and shares computer that apparently (thanks to some cool graphics) could predict the outcome of a multi-layered investment over several weeks or months while those \u201cgrey-suited morons\u201d at the stock exchange were stuck in the last century using outdated methods and technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As with any \u201cbig store\u201d set-up, we used the\nsingle location to bring in multiple potential marks compared to a typical scam\nthat might only have three victims lined up, two of whom would be cancelled if\nthe scam worked first time as it often did. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In these types of scams, however, numbers were\npart of the story as were the number of victims we could convince to sign up\nfor our scheme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almost everyone who saw the \u201cflash\u201d (how we\ndressed the scam – the graphics, the computer screens, the office, the suits\netc.) immediately accepted the concept and moved quickly towards being\nconvinced they could make a great deal of money if they were \u201callowed\u201d to\ninvest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only one potential victim immediately understood\nthe sheer mathematical impossibility of what we were supposedly doing and while\nhe couldn\u2019t calculate the odds exactly; based on what he was being shown, he\ncould see an enormous improbability that only got worse the more he thought\nabout it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turned out he was an amateur poker player who had very recently learned to calculate odds at the table (an invaluable skill<\/a> that many still refuse to learn) and could immediately see that the number of permutations based on the number of stocks being invested (according to our bullshit story) made our \u201csure fire\u201d system impossible<\/em> based on our claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Needless to say, he was quickly shown the door!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What worked with this kind of scam was the\ninability of most people to comprehend numbers beyond a certain size and our\nability to quickly distract them with promises of easy money based on a\ncompelling idea that was little more than a bedtime story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, the idea was easy to grasp but the\nreality was harder to recognise because the numbers were simply too much to\ncalculate, unless you had developed the habit (and the mental muscle) to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lottereality<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Going back to the UK Lotto: Millions of people\nbuy tickets every week and if I were to ask any of them to quote the odds, I\ngenuinely believe many could quickly state around 14,000,000 to 1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This may have been true at some point and has\nsomehow stuck with people as the \u201cbig number versus small number\u201d that they are\nhappy to live with but the true odds of 45,000,000 to 1 are far worse yet would\nonly be interpreted as another \u201cbig number versus small number\u201d and would fail\nto have the impact it should on their understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In actual fact, while the odds are bad, the\npotential prizes are far worse in terms of return since the minimum prize is\nonly \u00a32.5 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While many would quickly mistake this as being\npaid odds of 2,500,000 to 1, smart gamblers would remember that a ticket costs\n\u00a32, so the average return is half of that!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being paid 1.25 million to 1 on a bet of 45\nmillion to 1 against is a staggering mathematical advantage for any lottery but\nit has to be remembered that they all pay out many more prizes (for less than\nsix winning numbers) and the easiest prize to win (by matching two numbers) is\nstill 10 to 1 against and all you win for that is a free ticket for the next\ndraw!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps people should consider the smallest odds rather than the largest to gauge just how fair a proposition is, but truth be told, that simply creates more possibilities for fraud, deception or manipulative psychology<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of my favourite performance pieces is an absolute miracle with a borrowed deck of cards, created by the Spanish …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":31232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3644],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy The Lottery Is A Waste Of Your Time - Terrible Lottery Odds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn why most people fail to understand the odds against them when buying a lottery ticket and why it\u2019s not worth more than a casual flutter.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/lottery-waste-of-time\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"R. 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