{"id":30445,"date":"2022-01-24T11:36:56","date_gmt":"2022-01-24T17:36:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=30445"},"modified":"2022-02-07T12:01:54","modified_gmt":"2022-02-07T18:01:54","slug":"2024-us-election-betting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/2024-us-election-betting\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 US Election Betting: Will History Repeat Itself?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Recommended Bets<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Back Republicans to win Presidency @ 1.88 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Betfair<\/a>)<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Back Elizabeth Warren to be the Democrat Nominee @ 32.0 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Betfair<\/a>)<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Back Amy Klobuchar to be the Democrat Nominee @ 50.0 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Betfair<\/a>)<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The finale is 33 months away but the biggest market in world betting is\nalready heating up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a31.6BN was traded on Betfair when Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced off\nin 2020, smashing the previous all-time record &#8211; set by Trump and Hillary\nClinton in 2016 &#8211; by a factor of eight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A new record may well be set in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Biden\/Trump Would Be First Rematch In 68 Years<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump_vs_biden-1024x576.png\" alt=\"Trump and Biden\" class=\"wp-image-24525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump_vs_biden-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump_vs_biden-148x83.png 148w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump_vs_biden-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump_vs_biden-1100x619.png 1100w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump_vs_biden-480x270.png 480w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump_vs_biden.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Rematches are rare, if not unprecedented. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If materialising, it will be the first since 1956, when Dwight\nEisenhower won for a second time against Adlai Stevenson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prior to that, it was 1900 when William McKinley repeated his victory\nover William Jennings Bryan. Interestingly, that pair of elections followed\nanother rematch, when Grover Cleveland reversed his 1888 defeat to Benjamin\nHarrison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The logic of a rematch this time is strong. Both Biden and Trump give\nevery indication they intend to run again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whilst there is some doubt about Biden given his age and dire ratings,\nwere he to withdraw, he would be the first incumbent to not seek a second term\nsince Lyndon Johnson in 1968.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you want to back either man, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Betfair<\/a> is the place to get the best odds.<\/strong> Their exchange quotes Biden at 6.6 and Trump at 4.6. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By comparison, buying either on PredictIt would equate to fixed odds of 4.2 and 3.3 respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, should we be betting on the obvious? Personally, I\u2019m sceptical. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is simply too early in the cycle to make confident assumptions.\nEvents can and will happen, which are bound to impact the reputations of both\nmen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other candidates will raise their profiles. The primaries are two years\noff, and most contenders won\u2019t start declaring until 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Betting Available On\nWhich Candidates Will Run<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On that front, we can bet on whether candidates will run and when they\nwill declare. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding whether Trump will file a Statement of Candidacy before 2023,\nthe PredictIt trading line is around 30c for Yes, 70c for No. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other bookmakers offer odds that Trump declares this year, or that he is listed on the first ballot of the opening ballot or caucus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They also offer a wide range of politicians and celebrities for the latter market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hillary Clinton is at 4.0 to run &#8211; the same odds as actor Dwayne\nJohnson. \u201cThe Rock\u201d has signaled interest in running previously and, the way it\nis shaping up, 2024 could be perfect for somebody outside politics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fox News host Tucker Carlson is a 5.0 chance while Ivanka Trump has also been a popular selection at odds of 8.0. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a real longshot, Oprah Winfrey is available at 67.0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Biden Is In Big\nTrouble<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"799\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/joe-biden-.jpg\" alt=\"Joe Biden \" class=\"wp-image-30462\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/joe-biden-.jpg 799w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/joe-biden--148x99.jpg 148w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/joe-biden--768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/joe-biden--480x320.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 799px) 100vw, 799px\" \/><figcaption><em>Image: Gage Skidmore<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Leaving aside those more outlandish options for a moment, let\u2019s return\nto the rematch, whether it will happen and who would win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For my money, Joe Biden has a mountain to climb. His approval ratings\nare terrible and legislative agenda stalling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is very likely he will lose Congress at the mid-terms and then be\nground down by Republican investigations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There will be temptation and pressure to retire. He\u2019ll probably face a\nprimary challenge from within his own party. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fact Vice President Kamala Harris herself looks an even weaker\ncandidate doesn\u2019t alter his predicament. Others will come forward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Previously <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/joe-biden-betting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">I recommended Pete Buttigieg on these pages<\/a> and have since cashed the bet out for a profit at 20 points shorter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other Democrats to consider are Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar &#8211;\navailable at 32.0 and 50.0 for the party nomination on Betfair. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michelle Obama (22.0) will attract bets, but there\u2019s no indication\nshe\u2019ll run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whoever they pick will face a very tough task retaining the coalition of\nvoters that backed Biden against Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>My recommendation is to back the Republicans to regain the presidency at\n1.88 on Betfair, or at 54 cents on PredictIt.<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Republicans In Strong Shape But Don\u2019t Back Trump<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I do not, however, recommend backing Trump. His name on the ballot is\nthe Democrats\u2019 best chance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If he does run, that may well convince Biden to go for the rematch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether this reality dawns on Republicans is highly questionable, but\nthere is still plenty that can go wrong in Trump\u2019s bid for re-election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First and foremost, there is his massive legal exposure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New York Attorney General Letitia James said her civil investigation\ninto the Trump Organisation has found massive fraud, is issuing subpoenas and\nnoted Eric Trump had pleaded the 5th Amendment over 500 times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That investigation dovetails with a longstanding criminal investigation\nin Manhattan. Grand juries have long been convened and the chances of an\nindictment remain high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We are taking legal action to force Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Jr., and Ivanka Trump to comply with our investigation into the Trump Organization\u2019s financial dealings.<br><br>No one in this country can pick and choose if and how the law applies to them.<\/p>&mdash; NY AG James (@NewYorkStateAG) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NewYorkStateAG\/status\/1483652354398429184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We have uncovered significant evidence indicating that the Trump Organization used fraudulent and misleading asset valuations on multiple properties to obtain economic benefits, including loans, insurance coverage, and tax deductions for years.<\/p>&mdash; NY AG James (@NewYorkStateAG) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NewYorkStateAG\/status\/1483652355442847748?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How To Bet On A Trump\nIndictment<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There is also the ongoing investigation into the Jan 6th insurrection,\nTrump\u2019s role and other attempts to overturn the election result. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Georgia is investigating his taped and publicised call, telling their\nSecretary of State to find 11,000 votes. The latest revelations about false\nelectors in seven states, seemingly to defraud the electoral college, could\nwell produce criminal charges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s a link to all the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/01\/21\/us\/politics\/jan-6-fake-trump-electors.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">ongoing investigations into Trump<\/a> within this NYT piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s another betting market. Will Trump be indicted in 2022? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PredictIt set an earlier timeline, with an indictment before April 1 trading around 14 cents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Could Trump Lose His Grip On The GOP?<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Such threats would ruin any political candidate in history, but Trump\nhas of course defied conventional wisdom before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, I regard this a risk that Republicans would be mad to\ntake.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time next year, there will be slates of head-to-head polls\ninvolving multiple candidates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m confident Trump will fare much worse than other Republicans. Ron\nDeSantis or Nikki Haley would be looking at an easy win, whilst Trump may even\ntrail Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect there will also be more internal opposition. Some of his\nloudest cheerleaders, such as Alex Jones, are now sworn enemies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump has picked a fight with a large part of his base by supporting the Covid vaccines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He even praised China in a recent shocking interview with Conservative activist Candace Owens, who patronised him afterwards as being too old to understand the issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, I don\u2019t think Trump-backers have thought through the dynamics\nof a 2024 campaign. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether under indictment or not, he is sure to continue talking openly\nabout rigging the electoral college. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2016 and 2020, Trump refused to commit to accepting the result but few\ncommentators, foolishly, took him at his word. In light of Jan 6, they won\u2019t\nmake that mistake again.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If he\u2019s the candidate, Republicans will spend all of 2024 under pressure\nto commit to democracy. To avoid chaos, even civil war. Not a winning look, or\nstrategy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Common sense may prevail, leaving Trump free to spend more time with his\nlawyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Recommended Bets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Back Republicans to win Presidency @ 1.88 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\">Betfair<\/a>)<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Back Elizabeth Warren to be the Democrat Nominee @ 32.0 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\">Betfair<\/a>)<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Back Amy Klobuchar to be the Democrat Nominee @ 50.0 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\">Betfair<\/a>)<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recommended Bets Back Republicans to win Presidency @ 1.88 (Betfair) Back Elizabeth Warren to be the Democrat Nominee @ 32.0&nbsp;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":30449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3644,3267],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>2024 US Election Betting Tips - Will History Repeat Itself?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Political Betting Tips \u2013 Discover our recommended bets for who you should back to win the 2024 US Election and who will be the Democrat Nominees.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/2024-us-election-betting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024 US Election Betting: Will History Repeat Itself?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Discover our recommended bets for who you should back to win the 2024 US Election and who will be the Democrat Nominees.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/2024-us-election-betting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-01-24T17:36:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-07T18:01:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald_Trump.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Paul Krishnamurty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@paulmotty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Paul Krishnamurty\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/2024-us-election-betting\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/2024-us-election-betting\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Paul Krishnamurty\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/1a2d55cfe54492f4b1c0f823cf811bd1\"},\"headline\":\"2024 US Election Betting: Will History Repeat Itself?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-01-24T17:36:56+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-07T18:01:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/2024-us-election-betting\/\"},\"wordCount\":1176,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/2024-us-election-betting\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald_Trump.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Insider Insights\",\"Tips &amp; 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