{"id":28231,"date":"2021-06-11T11:46:51","date_gmt":"2021-06-11T16:46:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=28231"},"modified":"2022-02-07T12:22:07","modified_gmt":"2022-02-07T18:22:07","slug":"betting-tips-the-trumps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/betting-tips-the-trumps\/","title":{"rendered":"Political Betting: What Comes Next For The Trumps And How Should You Bet On It?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul><li><strong>With Donald Trump expected to return to the campaign trail any day soon, expect the drama to resume.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Betting markets are open for 2024, when Trump will announce 2024, when Trump will be indicted and on his running for Congress.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Political betting expert Paul Krishnamurty\u2019s recommended bet: Buy Trump for Congress @ 8 cents (PredictIt)<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Compared to the record-breaking events of last\nyear, 2021 has been relatively quiet on the US political betting front. Some\ncalm after the storm and a chance for everyone to catch a breath. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With Donald Trump expected to return to the\ncampaign trail any day soon, expect the drama to resume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2018The Donald\u2019 drove the growth of political betting\nlike no other. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turnout on Betfair rose nearly fifty-fold between\nthe 2012 and 2020 presidential elections. It is not unreasonable, therefore, to\nexpect the all-time record for any single betting event, \u00a32.5BN ($3.5BN), to be\nsmashed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Both Donald And Ivanka Are\nPopular For 2024<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you want to bet early, there are plenty of 2024\nlines open. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump is trading in third place across the industry, with a best price of 9.4 available on <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\" target=\"_blank\">Betfair<\/a>. At 4.0, he\u2019s a firm favorite to be the Republican Nominee.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of those two, the nominee bet makes superior sense.\nWhilst he remains overwhelmingly popular amongst the Republicans who will\ndecide their nominee, Trump remains deeply unpopular with a majority of US\nvoters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my view, he\u2019d start a big outsider in a rematch\nwith Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both bets of course involve a large amount of risk,\nas he isn\u2019t certain to participate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Assuming that he intends to run, the more immediate\nquestion involves when he will announce. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here, PredictIt offers a couple of markets on the\ndate &#8211; prior to 2022 or 2023. Its current odds currently reflect 12% and 37%\nchances respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My view here is that he\u2019s in no hurry. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t doubt his appetite, but the decision will\nprobably depend on (a) how well he\u2019s faring in polls and (b) how tied up he is\nwith legal stress. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t expect good news for him on either front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Will Trump Be Indicted?<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After four years trying to get Trump\u2019s tax returns\nand financial records for an investigation, Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance finally\nwon at the Supreme Court. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A grand jury is now sitting and a decision whether\nto indict is likely within months.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some bookies are offering odds that Trump is indicted before the end of 2021. That also covers any other criminal charges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, Georgia\u2019s AG is investigating his publicized\ntelephone call asking Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to find 11,000\nvotes, or various unresolved loose ends, related to the Russia scandal or\nMueller Report. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Georgia case looks particularly threatening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So if you want to back Trump for long-term targets\nsuch as 2024, it probably makes sense to back one of these earlier targets,\nsuch as to run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or even to avoid indictment, as that would surely\nhave a negative effect on the later odds. If the first hurdle is passed, play\nup the winnings on the next. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This strategy will pay bigger odds overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Congress Run Looks\nUnder-Priced<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One idea gaining traction involves first running\nfor Congress. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Find a Republican-friendly district in Florida\nwhere the incumbent would happily stand aside &#8211; scandal-hit Matt Gaetz\u2019s\ndistrict, for example &#8211; and which would be certain to elect him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the idea was mentioned in a radio interview\nlast week, Trump was very enthusiastic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Being in Congress would provide Trump a new\nplatform. A new megaphone to replace the social media sites, from which he is\nstill banned. Republicans could elect him as Speaker of the House of\nRepresentatives, thus elevating him to third in line for the presidency.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The plan could therefore be for Republicans to win\nthe House at the mid-terms &#8211; currently around a 2 in 3 chance according to the\nbetting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They would then have the numbers to impeach\nPresident Biden, conjuring up spurious charges if necessary. If losing the\npresidential race but retaining the House in 2024, Trump could block the\ncertification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bettors aren\u2019t yet convinced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PredictIt offers a market that Trump will either be\non a GOP primary ballot for 2022 or any seat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2018Yes\u2019 is currently available to buy at just 8 cents &#8211; equivalent to odds of 12.5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Return Of Rallies To Spark\nMore Gambles<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I reckon there\u2019s juice in those odds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump thrives off his rallies and so do his\nsupporters. We saw an extraordinary surge of cash for him following the\nRepublican Convention and again once his election rallies ramped up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once they restart, (perhaps around July 4), I\nexpect a repeat across these various markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This plan to run for Congress will get more of an\nairing. His supporters will love it and so will his entourage. Trump will love\nteasing them and the media. A new election campaign would ensure tens of millions\nof donations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s not to like?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Republicans would worry that his presence would\nhurt their mid-term chances and motivate Democrats but hardly anybody in the\nGOP will stand up to Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I recommend buying these PredictIt shares cheap at\n8. If it looked likely, the price would move instantly to 90 plus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is the extent of my pro-Trump betting at this\nstage, though. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve said for five years that the Republicans were\non a suicide mission by embracing him and far-right politics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nothing has changed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His brand is toxic to a majority and fixed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wider events, from potential indictments to the\nongoing prosecutions of his supporters for the January 6 insurrection, will\ndamage him further.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But so long as Trump wants the political limelight,\nthe Republicans will placate his ambitions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so long as these conversations persist, so will the betting opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Lead image: Gage Skidmore<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With Donald Trump expected to return to the campaign trail any day soon, expect the drama to resume. Betting markets&nbsp;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":28234,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3267],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Political Betting - How To Bet On Trump In June 2021<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Political betting markets are open for Trump in 2024, when he&#039;ll be indicted &amp; more. 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